Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

TFT / USDC

GBOV…AC47

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.82 USDC (shortened; full value 0.82167145004144 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy166.55 USDC (shortened; full value 166.5572899274556078390311886645 USDC)sell123.19 USDC (shortened; full value 123.19653298310801839693548072998300650406851237239 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 398.44 USDC (shortened; full value 398.4436211749202568605867272531 USDC)

2026-10-26T23:54:18Z — 2026-11-02T22:54:19ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 80.61 USDC (shortened; full value 80.6143114525772079852374455422 USDC)
5% from mid: 165.28 USDC (shortened; full value 165.2835225636322097546958974194 USDC)
10% from mid: 303.75 USDC (shortened; full value 303.7543120980882993176914426252 USDC)

168 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

93 of 168

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

59 of 168

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

24 of 168

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh