Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 9.91 USDC (shortened; full value 9.91979572717006903248574362602307331943990098259 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy9.60 USDC (shortened; full value 9.6049265106859008409982093822 USDC)sell9.78 USDC (shortened; full value 9.789204270881848079546373904647197872098602513645 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.94 USDC (shortened; full value 3.9433442607360990775211651961 USDC)
Highest: 374.36 USDC (shortened; full value 374.3649664066961158837419192743 USDC)

2026-10-04T00:53:32Z — 2026-10-24T19:53:33ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 17.85 USDC (shortened; full value 17.8524639832488156401285821862 USDC)
5% from mid: 23.92 USDC (shortened; full value 23.9294166695529171592502188633 USDC)
10% from mid: 374.36 USDC (shortened; full value 374.3649664066961158837419192743 USDC)

500 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

499 of 500

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

499 of 500

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

1 of 500

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh