Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 9.93 USDC (shortened; full value 9.936017680897298323635704337178562954903882118242 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy9.62 USDC (shortened; full value 9.6206335553146904564635748554 USDC)sell9.80 USDC (shortened; full value 9.805212666846284715371520524784985776394220370051 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 21,409.94 USDC (shortened; full value 21409.94553510009673486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.87 USDC (shortened; full value 3.8743887726397089084583827193 USDC)
Highest: 379.64 USDC (shortened; full value 379.6418489217035047012544932754 USDC)

2026-10-26T22:53:33Z — 2026-11-02T21:53:34ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 3.87 USDC (shortened; full value 3.8764834164650590699891892007 USDC)
5% from mid: 9.62 USDC (shortened; full value 9.6206335553146904564635748554 USDC)
10% from mid: 19.01 USDC (shortened; full value 19.0148040512189738974813424732 USDC)

168 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

90 of 168

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

78 of 168

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 21,409.94 USDC (shortened; full value 21409.94553510009673486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 21,409.94 USDC (shortened; full value 21409.94553510009673486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh