Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,672.59 USDC (shortened; full value 1672.592578649794991525594295409441323769316906560382 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy1,022.20 USDC (shortened; full value 1022.2030304392745875474217523715 USDC)sell1,761.28 USDC (shortened; full value 1761.280010540506445523526856266736110532411594004618 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 14,838.37 USDC (shortened; full value 14838.37569205458567638295954 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 34,725.42 USDC (shortened; full value 34725.4257619130564024747210709281 USDC)

2026-10-03T23:53:32Z — 2026-10-24T18:53:28ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 926.21 USDC (shortened; full value 926.2172120332472839593122146991 USDC)
5% from mid: 1,585.30 USDC (shortened; full value 1585.3027086159169969084926861302 USDC)
10% from mid: 2,735.29 USDC (shortened; full value 2735.2998273350871712838790936606 USDC)

500 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

16 of 500

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 14,838.37 USDC (shortened; full value 14838.37569205458567638295954 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 17.87 USDC (shortened; full value 17.8787157 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 829.9463 (shortened; full value 829.9463977747901476157462216372)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 14,856.25 USDC (shortened; full value 14856.25440775458567638295954 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh