Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,622.58 USDC (shortened; full value 1622.587656233295071248269064523109534949926011552802 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy1,108.44 USDC (shortened; full value 1108.4408371516493231477257219694 USDC)sell1,658.86 USDC (shortened; full value 1658.867012233064017587936470102275864951196863027556 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 14,836.31 USDC (shortened; full value 14836.31874068121230300958662 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 30.00 USDC (shortened; full value 30.0017146412191080884062813853 USDC)
Highest: 14,131.05 USDC (shortened; full value 14131.0506577789573519514551750012 USDC)

2026-10-26T22:53:33Z — 2026-11-02T21:53:29ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 462.64 USDC (shortened; full value 462.6443140875692594107425369822 USDC)
5% from mid: 1,108.44 USDC (shortened; full value 1108.4408371516493231477257219694 USDC)
10% from mid: 2,164.59 USDC (shortened; full value 2164.597535127708936983984895166 USDC)

168 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

1 of 168

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 14,836.31 USDC (shortened; full value 14836.31874068121230300958662 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0.53 USDC (shortened; full value 0.5300986 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 27,987.8474 (shortened; full value 27987.8474319328749463016627849989)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 14,836.84 USDC (shortened; full value 14836.84883928121230300958662 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh