Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 5,497.34 USDC (shortened; full value 5497.3466090502953275352118975 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy9,297.60 USDC (shortened; full value 9297.6014982878377316839091998354 USDC)sell6,645.76 USDC (shortened; full value 6645.767058620362607951043182599534602822190510896265 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 21,989.38 USDC (shortened; full value 21989.38643620118131014084759 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 161.05 USDC (shortened; full value 161.0542887829689123662292244576 USDC)
Highest: 22,748.55 USDC (shortened; full value 22748.5509276337935694774732656128 USDC)

2026-10-27T23:53:23Z — 2026-11-03T00:08:34ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 180.08 USDC (shortened; full value 180.0839112482324206455626394534 USDC)
5% from mid: 10,476.32 USDC (shortened; full value 10476.3246353154393057520362725109 USDC)
10% from mid: 20,117.41 USDC (shortened; full value 20117.4127932657114786039906026132 USDC)

8 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

5 of 8

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 21,989.38 USDC (shortened; full value 21989.38643620118131014084759 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 1.45 USDC (shortened; full value 1.4574857 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 15,087.2056 (shortened; full value 15087.2056145739071814844204577788)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 21,990.84 USDC (shortened; full value 21990.84392190118131014084759 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh