Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 5,606.24 USDC (shortened; full value 5606.248061000199779307082505 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy10,535.85 USDC (shortened; full value 10535.8511678531261300865079012714 USDC)sell8,802.15 USDC (shortened; full value 8802.1559010554751710496828105594479741205240839475 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 22,424.99 USDC (shortened; full value 22424.99224400079911722833002 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 55.23 USDC (shortened; full value 55.2379072301894977894700225771 USDC)
Highest: 23,794.87 USDC (shortened; full value 23794.8732919812495422719962439605 USDC)

2026-10-26T23:53:28Z — 2026-11-02T23:08:29ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 2,117.08 USDC (shortened; full value 2117.084927985803247736216511742 USDC)
5% from mid: 10,538.05 USDC (shortened; full value 10538.0543587491235065105299549766 USDC)
10% from mid: 21,300.64 USDC (shortened; full value 21300.6438665717066925165626967188 USDC)

169 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

90 of 169

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 22,424.99 USDC (shortened; full value 22424.99224400079911722833002 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 1.93 USDC (shortened; full value 1.9343436 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 11,593.0759 (shortened; full value 11593.0759374915599882194301053856)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 22,426.92 USDC (shortened; full value 22426.92658760079911722833002 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh