Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 5,219.84 USDC (shortened; full value 5219.846319875154167974574905 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy8,983.98 USDC (shortened; full value 8983.9868670936389335245373157708 USDC)sell7,434.50 USDC (shortened; full value 7434.503191347144530805996114387285288495666803669305 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 20,879.38 USDC (shortened; full value 20879.38527950061667189829962 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 54.26 USDC (shortened; full value 54.2654543792108541885070569205 USDC)
Highest: 35,142.45 USDC (shortened; full value 35142.4500951499979370508810330341 USDC)

2026-10-04T02:53:27Z — 2026-10-24T22:08:23ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 2,869.84 USDC (shortened; full value 2869.846914214772755249610809187 USDC)
5% from mid: 15,311.01 USDC (shortened; full value 15311.0117532748640246617498484443 USDC)
10% from mid: 18,164.31 USDC (shortened; full value 18164.3145695786016030154217710235 USDC)

501 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

401 of 501

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 20,879.38 USDC (shortened; full value 20879.38527950061667189829962 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 20,879.38 USDC (shortened; full value 20879.38527950061667189829962 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh