Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

Medium

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 5,593.28 USDC (shortened; full value 5593.280460474930641159815665 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy6,419.61 USDC (shortened; full value 6419.6129176908936367641433742324 USDC)sell15,137.11 USDC (shortened; full value 15137.111069875652036051812577456849717620386344133572 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 22,373.12 USDC (shortened; full value 22373.12184189972256463926266 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 48.19 USDC (shortened; full value 48.1998630007729396012173184931 USDC)
Highest: 22,835.17 USDC (shortened; full value 22835.1776532455630921624386238754 USDC)

2026-11-02T03:53:29Z — 2026-11-03T03:23:29ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 50.69 USDC (shortened; full value 50.6917941384964160828679143133 USDC)
5% from mid: 5,300.01 USDC (shortened; full value 5300.0131519011061197590393150508 USDC)
10% from mid: 18,737.41 USDC (shortened; full value 18737.419906589707476709769894601 USDC)

25 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

5 of 25

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 22,373.12 USDC (shortened; full value 22373.12184189972256463926266 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 22,373.12 USDC (shortened; full value 22373.12184189972256463926266 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh