Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XAU / USDC

GBCB…LXAU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1.71 USDC (shortened; full value 1.715687144234559790355823329712061054946711420925 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy40.04 USDC (shortened; full value 40.0431689278772886028194242463 USDC)sell0 USDC
Cost to move +50%: 50.40 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4064686000085137205 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 11.48 USDC (shortened; full value 11.4856770670696010599019372733 USDC)
Highest: 96.24 USDC (shortened; full value 96.2490715007245794325537456877 USDC)

2026-10-05T23:54:32Z — 2026-10-25T22:54:33ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 23.27 USDC (shortened; full value 23.2729244410530737481056510937 USDC)
5% from mid: 31.82 USDC (shortened; full value 31.8273952749665028028830449717 USDC)
10% from mid: 96.24 USDC (shortened; full value 96.2490715007245794325537456877 USDC)

21 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Nothing tradable within 2%nowZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

10 of 21

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

0 of 21

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 50.40 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4064686000085137205 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 79.08 USDC (shortened; full value 79.0856591 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 0.6373 (shortened; full value 0.6373654740143464736010526591)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 129.49 USDC (shortened; full value 129.4921277000085137205 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh