Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

XAU / USDC

GBCB…LXAU

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 12.60 USDC (shortened; full value 12.601617150002128430125 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy13.50 USDC (shortened; full value 13.5026719213659956305404721342 USDC)sell101.13 USDC (shortened; full value 101.139620726804105804946237544710841884172267872684 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 50.40 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4064686000085137205 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 4 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 7.92 USDC (shortened; full value 7.9252467594623798882277897753 USDC)
Highest: 96.92 USDC (shortened; full value 96.9277045810015698420409243335 USDC)

2026-10-05T02:54:32Z — 2026-10-25T21:54:33ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 22.82 USDC (shortened; full value 22.8235263812013654121158474179 USDC)
5% from mid: 31.37 USDC (shortened; full value 31.3730948104460304852436880608 USDC)
10% from mid: 95.78 USDC (shortened; full value 95.7867534837054690572667846732 USDC)

500 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

0 of 500

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

0 of 500

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

230 of 500

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 50.40 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4064686000085137205 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 50.40 USDC (shortened; full value 50.4064686000085137205 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh