Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

VELO / USDC

GDM4…2M5M

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 68.75 USDC (shortened; full value 68.755668075681581343069825 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy187.02 USDC (shortened; full value 187.0205768316915995122398804429 USDC)sell59.48 USDC (shortened; full value 59.486015946726843299075766160309916329985760179349 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 275.02 USDC (shortened; full value 275.0226723027263253722793 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 227.36 USDC (shortened; full value 227.3675055364976548284737205797 USDC)

2026-10-05T23:54:32Z — 2026-10-25T22:54:28ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 181.86 USDC (shortened; full value 181.8663189389154649925014166879 USDC)
5% from mid: 188.06 USDC (shortened; full value 188.0622275101704365923921296569 USDC)
10% from mid: 214.98 USDC (shortened; full value 214.9820805819307761995955404214 USDC)

21 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

16 of 21

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

5 of 21

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

4 of 21

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

3 of 21

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 275.02 USDC (shortened; full value 275.0226723027263253722793 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 1.55 USDC (shortened; full value 1.5577915 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 176.5465 (shortened; full value 176.5465226268896225022920589822)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 276.58 USDC (shortened; full value 276.5804638027263253722793 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh