Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

VELO / USDC

GDM4…2M5M

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 68.75 USDC (shortened; full value 68.755668075681581343069825 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy187.02 USDC (shortened; full value 187.0205768316915995122398804429 USDC)sell59.48 USDC (shortened; full value 59.486015946726843299075766160309916329985760179349 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 275.02 USDC (shortened; full value 275.0226723027263253722793 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

The stored series carries one manipulation rung, the +50% move. A reading the engine could not produce breaks the line rather than sitting at zero.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 79.87 USDC (shortened; full value 79.87009070266838966558687 USDC)
Highest: 14,975.01 USDC (shortened; full value 14975.01331300815477872547726 USDC)

2026-10-05T03:54:27Z — 2026-10-25T22:54:28Z

Cost to move +50%: 280.70 USDC (shortened; full value 280.70051660273597858250115 USDC)

500 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

349 of 500

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

117 of 500

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

84 of 500

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

42 of 500

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 275.02 USDC (shortened; full value 275.0226723027263253722793 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 1.55 USDC (shortened; full value 1.5577915 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 176.5465 (shortened; full value 176.5465226268896225022920589822)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 276.58 USDC (shortened; full value 276.5804638027263253722793 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh