Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

USTRY / USDC

GCRY…MYWC

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 66,553.16 USDC (shortened; full value 66553.16273349629087696264949 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy266,213.07 USDC (shortened; full value 266213.0762079080963077091886608631 USDC)sell262,587.75 USDC (shortened; full value 262587.75270945741193178528805340467960257359676293608 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 266,212.65 USDC (shortened; full value 266212.65093398516350785059796 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 2 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 257,145.87 USDC (shortened; full value 257145.8718145614360073614026172278 USDC)
Highest: 279,984.21 USDC (shortened; full value 279984.2175561541351157780722315691 USDC)

2026-10-03T23:54:27Z — 2026-10-24T19:39:28ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 277,892.57 USDC (shortened; full value 277892.5777296808627229188087387748 USDC)
5% from mid: 278,005.47 USDC (shortened; full value 278005.4741142888617909845989566989 USDC)
10% from mid: 278,005.87 USDC (shortened; full value 278005.8761078915786766333332898865 USDC)

501 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 266,212.65 USDC (shortened; full value 266212.65093398516350785059796 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 11.04 USDC (shortened; full value 11.042087 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 24,108.9072 (shortened; full value 24108.9072141874234017401418735426)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 266,223.69 USDC (shortened; full value 266223.69302098516350785059796 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh