Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

TFT / USDC

GBOV…AC47

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.82 USDC (shortened; full value 0.82167145004144 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy180.80 USDC (shortened; full value 180.8048684195349053353910814887 USDC)sell109.03 USDC (shortened; full value 109.0353813774209084721494559369295340690541458829 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 0 USDC
Highest: 647.11 USDC (shortened; full value 647.1143426132662441505820014709 USDC)

2026-10-04T23:54:17Z — 2026-10-24T21:09:18ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 184.99 USDC (shortened; full value 184.9941396767085677919278242602 USDC)
5% from mid: 275.26 USDC (shortened; full value 275.2644193963060605390773759145 USDC)
10% from mid: 422.89 USDC (shortened; full value 422.8953775895175067210034969543 USDC)

21 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

8 of 21

Price sources disagreePRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

5 of 21

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

4 of 21

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 3.28 USDC (shortened; full value 3.28668580016576 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh