Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

FRED / USDC

GCA7…ZLV6

Risk band

Critical

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 0.27 USDC (shortened; full value 0.2750000000000054737408 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%: buy20.50 USDC (shortened; full value 20.5037488151692870875630047032 USDC)sell20.89 USDC (shortened; full value 20.897128488892058990287399631701435967930637781408 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 1.10 USDC (shortened; full value 1.1000000000000218949632 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 5 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 8.22 USDC (shortened; full value 8.2205558622536389056704006555 USDC)
Highest: 90.70 USDC (shortened; full value 90.7045513452667926128103570233 USDC)

2026-10-04T23:53:42Z — 2026-10-25T01:23:38ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 48.83 USDC (shortened; full value 48.8338393064669911964509609782 USDC)
5% from mid: 62.80 USDC (shortened; full value 62.8038801109374480934466759155 USDC)
10% from mid: 83.85 USDC (shortened; full value 83.8519646289116675460264219603 USDC)

22 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Cheap to move the pricenowMANIPULATION_CHEAP

throughout

Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

9 of 22

Extreme spreadnowSPREAD_EXTREME

7 of 22

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

12 of 22

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 1.10 USDC (shortened; full value 1.1000000000000218949632 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 1.10 USDC (shortened; full value 1.1000000000000218949632 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh