Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 9.91 USDC (shortened; full value 9.919673542844253649012666031466658095172711858856 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy9.60 USDC (shortened; full value 9.6048082046735184107316317847 USDC)sell9.78 USDC (shortened; full value 9.789083695080610451660904666249975914051284308668 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 3.97 USDC (shortened; full value 3.9717569615431014050150300758 USDC)
Highest: 373.95 USDC (shortened; full value 373.9583050582163156548607110693 USDC)

2026-10-04T23:53:32Z — 2026-10-24T22:08:28ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 17.44 USDC (shortened; full value 17.4457780845792368568108286267 USDC)
5% from mid: 23.52 USDC (shortened; full value 23.5227400863139880294075359102 USDC)
10% from mid: 373.95 USDC (shortened; full value 373.9583050582163156548607110693 USDC)

21 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

20 of 21

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

20 of 21

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

1 of 21

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh