Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTCLN / USDC

GDPK…VBVT

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 9.91 USDC (shortened; full value 9.919454901382387455304974535347439185077190488414 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy9.60 USDC (shortened; full value 9.6045965032189968368678853559 USDC)sell9.78 USDC (shortened; full value 9.788867931976199530702355782457664636862953599517 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

The stored series carries one manipulation rung, the +50% move. A reading the engine could not produce breaks the line rather than sitting at zero.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 22,075.38 USDC (shortened; full value 22075.38303600015842486444238 USDC)
Highest: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700670012525486444238 USDC)

2026-10-04T01:53:32Z — 2026-10-24T21:08:33Z

Cost to move +50%: 62,969.98 USDC (shortened; full value 62969.98700440011350486444238 USDC)

501 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

Price sources disagreenowPRICE_SOURCE_CONFLICT

498 of 501

Extreme spreadSPREAD_EXTREME

498 of 501

Nothing tradable within 2%ZERO_DEPTH_2PCT

3 of 501

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 0 USDC
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: not computed
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 21,000.07 USDC (shortened; full value 21000.07406870005819486444238 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh