Keel — Stellar liquidity risk

BTC / USDC

GDPJ…2MZM

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral: 1,644.04 USDC (shortened; full value 1644.042123052018564904057874593336051714267716659344 USDC)Limited by liquidation depth
Depth within 5%: buy1,081.28 USDC (shortened; full value 1081.2868444525240065106203911062 USDC)sell1,703.96 USDC (shortened; full value 1703.960453002839814532865570592225824842446085456448 USDC)
Cost to move +50%: 14,881.33 USDC (shortened; full value 14881.3367772738048956021879 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks: 3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window

Resolution

Source

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Lower at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest: 449.44 USDC (shortened; full value 449.4422810652749823385429397404 USDC)
Highest: 2,412.67 USDC (shortened; full value 2412.6755976970043331602138493207 USDC)

2026-11-01T23:53:29Z — 2026-11-02T23:38:34ZOne scale across every line on this chart

2% from mid: 449.44 USDC (shortened; full value 449.4422810652749823385429397404 USDC)
5% from mid: 1,094.89 USDC (shortened; full value 1094.8926020313637863152010053704 USDC)
10% from mid: 2,150.48 USDC (shortened; full value 2150.4831098041810831823773006547 USDC)

2 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.

One holder owns most of itnowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_EXTREME

throughout

Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCT

throughout

Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGH

throughout

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only: 14,881.33 USDC (shortened; full value 14881.3367772738048956021879 USDC)
The target is reachable through the order book
Genuine volume in the oracle window: 52.20 USDC (shortened; full value 52.2052506 USDC)
Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter
Cost against genuine volume: 285.0544 (shortened; full value 285.0544074827945543010608189667)
Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable
Total attack cost: 14,933.54 USDC (shortened; full value 14933.5420278738048956021879 USDC)
The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh