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keel
Ledger
65,276,594
Methodology
1.0.8-draft
Age
2s

AQUA against USDC — what depth stands behind this price?

All assets

AQUA / USDC

GBNZ…AQUA

Risk band

High

partial confidence

A floor: the real band can only be worse.

Max safe collateral
5,223.27 USDC (shortened; full value 5223.2744550499517137745776775 USDC)Limited by manipulation cost
Depth within 5%
buy8,965.14 USDC (shortened; full value 8965.1452302146759814730208051956 USDC)sell8,530.50 USDC (shortened; full value 8530.507749526789555382429814347578525321103449403127 USDC)
Cost to move +50%
20,893.09 USDC (shortened; full value 20893.09782019980685509831071 USDC)Reachable through the order book
Checks
3 triggered3 not evaluated

History

Window
Resolution
Source

Buy-side depth

What an order can absorb before the price moves against a buyer. The rungs are nested, so one scale covers all three.

Higher at the end of the window than at its start

Lowest
161.05 USDC (shortened; full value 161.0542887829689123662292244576 USDC)
Highest
20,192.68 USDC (shortened; full value 20192.6803733299400944856955688151 USDC)
2026-11-02T23:53:29Z — 2026-11-03T01:08:29ZOne scale across every line on this chart
2% from mid
172.41 USDC (shortened; full value 172.4180685359924696258571626934 USDC)
5% from mid
10,581.59 USDC (shortened; full value 10581.5944582655325749291794049933 USDC)
10% from mid
19,071.59 USDC (shortened; full value 19071.596888016736142594508563244 USDC)
2 readings from horizon, with no gaps reported. One source per chart.

Checks

What fires now, how long it has been firing across the window above, and what could not run.
Thin depth at 5%nowTHIN_DEPTH_5PCTthroughout
Supply is concentratednowHOLDER_CONCENTRATION_HIGHthroughout
Cheap next to real tradingnowMANIPULATION_RATIO_LOW1 of 2

Not evaluated3

  • No genuine trade in 30 days
  • No genuine trade in 7 days
  • Volume may be wash traded

Evidence

The figures behind the verdict, as the engine served them.

An averaging oracle makes an attacker outweigh genuine trading as well as move the book. A market with no genuine volume has no such defence.

Cost of a 50% move, order book only
20,893.09 USDC (shortened; full value 20893.09782019980685509831071 USDC)

The target is reachable through the order book

Genuine volume in the oracle window
255.12 USDC (shortened; full value 255.1259285 USDC)

Over the last 900 seconds (15 minutes), after the genuine-trade filter

Cost against genuine volume
81.8932 (shortened; full value 81.8932749918431236796000948606)

Below 1, moving the price is cheaper than all genuine trading across the window. Not computed when there was no genuine volume or the target is unreachable

Total attack cost
21,148.22 USDC (shortened; full value 21148.22374869980685509831071 USDC)

The move, plus the genuine volume an averaging oracle forces an attacker to outweigh